Trickster Tipster Nov 01

Probability formulaes say Liverpool will triumph against Villa


(Statistics + algebra – probability) x me = 100% accurate EPL predictions.

 

The last time Liverpool visited Villa Park in the league, they ended up 6-0 winners. That was about 3½ years ago.  

 

But that was then and now Aston Villa are a very different-looking team. They have been quite the surprise this season with their performances, if not their results. But there have been some games where they turned up looking like the Villa teams of yesteryear - devoid of passion or talent.  

 

Against Liverpool, it may not be that easy. However, the Reds haven’t been that convincing in the past few games. They didn’t perform up to my expectations against Manchester United and Tottenham. Then there was that crazy 5-5 draw in the Carabao Cup against Arsenal, too.  

 

With so many uncertainties, I figured the best way will be to use probability to decide the most probable outcome.  

 

Before that, I had to calculate the chances of both teams winning. Having included all the factors around the clubs, the numbers were clear - Aston Villa had a 20 per cent chance of winning, while Livepool’s stood at 65 per cent, with a 15 per cent chance of a draw.  

 

So using the probability formula with those percentages, and other factors such as the weight of the ball, the referee, and even the size of the goalposts, I got the answer.  

 

Take Liverpool to win 3-1 against Aston Villa.  

 

 

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